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12-3-11, Saturday 9am: Some nice storms across the Blue Mountains late yesterday and into the evening. No hail observed in Blackheath thanks mainly to the saturated atmosphere from the lower to upper levels. Mt Boyce recorded 15.8mm during the storm activity. Some of the storms were fairly lightning active and very slow moving, thanks to the mid level wind shear being so benign. You could still see storms lighting up Sydney at 10pm as they took forever to roll off the mountains in the low wind shear environment.
Sunny Corner had an incredible downpour from these storms with around 66mm falling in one hour yesterday for a event total of 76.4mm (so far). Peak rainfall rate was 260mm/h - an extraordinary event. You can read more about Sunny Corner's weather from the new private AWS there. Head to the Weather Stations link on my main page, to view this new station.
11-3-11, Friday 3:30pm: Some storm development now current on the Oberon Plateau, I can see it from Blackheath. Wind shear in the stearing levels is not strong so flash flooding could be a possibility in isolated storms this afternoon. The atmosphere is full of moisture and quite unstable, so some spots could get a good dumping of rain.
9-3-11, 3pm: 80.3mm was the amount recorded in my home office gauge for February with 70.4mm recorded at the Mt Boyce AWS. Average minimum temperatures for the month were 1.3C above the average of 13C and the maximum average for the month was 23.7C, which is 1C above the average. Katoomba came in at 14.9C for average minimums and 24.2C for average maximums, which is 2.1C and 1.8C above the long term average, respectively. So, quite a warm month and the Katoomba figures are more reflective of how warm it was, as they go back many more decades. It must be remembered though that the Katoomba station has moved often in its life-time and is currently in a 'warm' location with a lot of concrete and bitumen nearby.
27-2-11, 9am: The trough is passing through a little earlier than expected today and combined with the weak, capped inversion in place, instability has been initiated early today. Good for the gardens, not so good if you are planning to be outside today. There could be some drier breaks throughout the day, its dependent on how quickly the trough moves through.
24-2-11, 8am: This article from the Herald Sun about Tim Flannery's predictions on climate change is worth a read. I'm very supportive of anyone trying to understand climate change issues and there is no doubt the climate is warming at present but why didn't we appoint a climatologist as chair of the new Climate Commision? Look at this article too.
I should point out that the above Herald Sun blogger has got it wrong about last years ski season as it certainly wasn't a good one. It briefly achieved the average snow depth in mid August but generally speaking, it was a poor ski season.
19-2-11, 8am: There is a reasonable chance of a storm later this afternoon but the Sydney sounding has been missing the wind speeds for a couple of days now so its hard to predict storm movement. It might just cloud over with a few spots here or there but we could also see isolated, half decent storms in the area. Moisture profiles aren't that great so we will have to wait and see how it pans out later today. With a few weddings going on this weekend in the mountains, it is looking fairly good for those events.
14-2-11, 8am: Well, my gauge has recorded 33.6mm from this event so far but it seems like Oberon has had a lot more. Around 100mm fell in eight hours on Saturday making it their second wettest day in 21 years. Perhaps this is partly a reflection on the lack of big rain events in recent decades but its still a great result for Oberon and their dam. Thanks to Blair for the heads up about this event.
13-2-11, midday: 28.8mm for the 24 hours to 9am Sunday, from my gauge, slightly more than Mt Boyce. That's a great drop, considering how dry its been.
12-2-11, 9am: There is about a 40% to 50% chance of storms or showers as Saturday progresses and Sunday and Monday have about a 50% to 60% chance of showers or rain.
9-2-11, 11am: Just a little note on coastal troughs and why the weather can change notably from the forecasts. Sometimes an upper trough above a surface trough does not amplify as much as the models predict so there is less rain than forecast and also, sometimes the surface charts predict winds as easterly but they turn out more NE or even NNE, so we only get cloudy conditions instead of rain or maybe just drizzle.
8-2-11, 8am: The mild weather is back and its great to see some drizzle and light showers for the gardens. Friday looks to be warmer but there is no extended heat wave at present on the charts, like we have had. It will be warm over the weekend at this stage but not hot.
7-2-11, 7am: What a difference a day makes. A minimum of 8.5C this morning after numerous days with minimums of around 20C or more. Should stay cooler for most of the week, may warm up by around the weekend.
5-2-11, 2pm: Sounds like there is a nasty fire in the Megalong/Kanimbla Valley at Peach Tree road. Lots of sirens around midday and just after.
Katoomba has broken the old, warmest minimum record for the third day this month with a 23C to 9am today. The new record was set on the 2nd at 23.3C, so that will stand officially as the new record but to have three days in the month breaking the original 75 year old record is impressive, even if the Katoomba Obs site isn't highly regarded by the BoM, as it has moved many times and is currently near concrete and bitumen. Mt Boyce has set its warmest minimum record again (3rd time this month) with a 22C but our records only date back fourteen years.
5-2-11, 10am: I was hoping for a chance of storms today but its looking pretty dry in the Sydney weather balloon sounding today. Not too bad at the surface but things dry out as you move higher into the atmosphere, which is the engine room for storms. There is a slight chance we might see something but its looking mostly hot and windy.
4-2-11, 8pm: Some interesting Feb heat records to pour over, yet to be confirmed but likely to be soon. At least its been good Blackheath Pool weather!
Gulgong appears to have broken a 33 year record for overnight min, with a 27.2C, 0.7C above the record.
Katoomba has broken the record this month for warmest minimum in seventy five years, now set at 23.3C, 0.7C above the previous record. The old record was also broken on the next night, with a 22.7C. Katoomba is currently also running at more than 9C above average for mins and maxs.
Mudgee has broken a fourteen year record for warmest minimum at 25.6C, 2.3C above the previous record.
Mt Boyce has broken its fourteen year record for warmest minimum with a 21.6 and a 21.8 on the 2nd and 3rd and could break it again tonight.
I think Sydney is also set to break its consecutive days above 30C record as well.
4-2-11: 5pm: Perhaps that capped inversion breaking around lunchtime has reduced the convective energy today. So, storms may not be around up here or perhaps weaker, lets see how it pans out later on.
4-2-11, 12:40pm: We had a cell right over our heads but nothing a few hundred metres either side of us. Fascinating to watch a clear air storm - the base hovered over us like a space ship with specs of hail, some thunder but I could see the lack of rain to my north, only two hundred metres or so away.
Wagga sounding has fairly slack stearing winds but a nicely unstable setup via LI's.
RE-plotting the Sydney sounding, shows a weakish cap up here as its got a bit hotter than expected and the DP is high for us, has been around 19C this morning.
Hope that doesn't spoil things for later. When the capped inversion breaks early, it can spell an ordinary storm afternoon, at times.
4-2-11, 9am: NB: Haven't had much time to look at the charts as I've been setting up this blog but lifted index via GFS and the Sydney sounding suggests a good chance for storms later today. Mid level winds are also not too bad so storms are a moderate chance of drifting over to the Blue Mountains.
2-2-11, Wednesday, 4pm: NB: There is certainly a chance of significant storms this afternoon across the Blue Mountains with some of them potentially, being severe. Stearing winds are quite good in the mid levels, although their northerly direction may prevent storms from reaching us. Moisture profiles are also good. We just need that capped inversion to break in the afternoon and the stearing winds to be a bit more around to the west. Flash flooding could occur if storms are nearby and strong winds are also possible. I would rate Blackheath and the upper Blue Mountains in general as having a 40% to 50% chance of storms later this afternoon or evening.
1-2-11, Tuesday, 4pm: Keep an eye on this Western Pacific Weather - YouTube site for Cyclone Yasi Updates. This guy really knows his stuff, although I don't know how often he updates. You can also view this Townsville Webcam although it may get blown away or taken offline from too many hits later on. It might also be hard to see much as the cloud deck becomes lower.
1-2-11, Tuesday, 4pm: 164.6mm was the rainfall total from my Blackheath gauge for January. The official reading at Mt Boyce AWS was 172.2mm. For those new to rainfall records up this way, remember that recorded amounts can vary notably from place to place thanks to our varied topography and other factors. The official average minimum was 14.5C from Mt Boyce and 15C at Katoomba, which appears to be the warmest average in seventy five years of record for Katoomba. 24.2C was the average maximum for Mt Boyce with 24.3C for Katoomba, which is 1.1C warmer than their average. Our thoughts and prayers go out to QLD as they again tackle a very serious weather event, in the form of a cyclone. Fingers crossed it weakens a little as it nears the coast, its not looking good at present.
12-1-11, Wednesday, 9am: Our hearts go out to the victims of flooding in Qld and also northern NSW. Its going to be a very tough few days for them. The re-building process will also take many months and they will need our financial help. Keep in mind that there is another strong trough setup moving into NSW by Thursday which could cause flash flooding and/or river flooding in western and central NSW. So, keep up to date with the latest information if you are travelling in these areas. Flash flooding can cause major havoc downstream of the actual storm event and is a very deceptive flooding phenomenon - all can seem calm where you are but then a wall of water can arrive without apparent notice. River flooding is slower but still potentially very dangerous. Here is a great example of what a flash flood event can do on an apparently calm day, click on this link. Its hard to realise just how dangerous a flash flood can be. Please be very careful if you are planning a camping trip or any sort of driving holiday in our area over the coming days. Do your homework on the weather before leaving. Better still, contact The Weather Company on the link at the top of this page, it will be the best money you will ever spend on weather information for your planned trip. Be aware of low lying areas when you stop for a cuppa on a trip and don't camp or park your car near causeways or rivers for extended periods. Climbers and canyoners should also stay informed, over the coming days in the Blue Mountains.
10-1-11, Monday, 8am: Well, we all know how wet summer has been thus far in the mountains; just constant cloudiness, drizzle or showers with not a lot of sun in between. Not much fun for the Blackheath pool lovers! At least we are not being devastated by floods like many places. 184.8mm for December was my gauge recording with the official Mt Boyce station producing a fifteen year record with 200mm. The average, monthly total is 72.1mm from that station, so pretty wet indeed. Katoomba came in with 224.6mm for December which is a lot more than their average of 122.4mm. Katoomba was -1.2C down on its average maximum with 21.2C but 0.6C above for its average minimums at 12.2C, not surprising with all of this rain. Mt Boyce was also -1.2C down on its average maximums at 21.4C and right on average for minimums at 11.5C. I've had around 40mm for January so far but that will notably increase this week with the trough setups around.
